Tobi challenged marketing’s fixation on prediction. He has built highly accurate LTV models, but accuracy alone does not move revenue. Marketing is intervention. Correlation shows patterns; causality tells you what happens when you pull a lever. That shift reshapes experimentation, explains why dynamic allocation can outperform static A B tests, and highlights how self learning systems can backfire or get stuck in local maxima.More
Tag Archives: causation
182: Simon Lejeune: Wealthsimple’s VP of Growth on 2 keys to be a top 5% marketer
Simon Lejeune learned early that chasing small wins keeps growth teams stuck, a lesson that landed hard when Hopper’s CEO dismissed his price‑point test as a “local maximum” and pushed him toward ideas bold enough to reshape the business. That experience drives how he leads at Wealthsimple, where he tells teams to stop polishing the same hill and start climbing new mountains.More
176: Rajeev Nair: Causal AI and a unified measurement framework
Rajeev believes measurement only works when it’s unified or multi-modal, a stack that blends multi-touch attribution, incrementality, media mix modeling and causal AI, each used for the decision it fits. At Lifesight, that means using causal machine learning to surface hidden experiments in messy historical data and designing geo tests that reveal what actually drives lift. Attribution alone can’t tell you what changed outcomes.More
166: Constantine Yurevich: Visit Scoring, an alternative to MMM and MTA few marketers know about
Multi-touch attribution is a beautifully crafted illusion we all pretend to believe in while knowing deep down it’s flawed. The work is mysterious, but is it important? The big ad platforms sell us sophisticated solutions they don’t even trust for their own internal decisions. Is it time we accept marketing causation is a thing we can’t measure?More
135: Pranav Piyush: Why multi-touch attribution is broken and what you should do instead
Pranav guides us out of the labyrinth of multi-touch attribution under the clear sky of incrementality and causality, urging marketers to focus on whether their efforts genuinely drive sales that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. Early-stage startups can benefit by prioritizing simple methods like geo-based testing over complex attribution models, allowing intuition to guide resourceful experimentation.More